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From “Manual Control” to an Intelligent State:
Challenges and Strategic Guidelines for Kazakhstan

The article is devoted to the analysis of systemic problems in public administration in Kazakhstan. It examines institutional dysfunctions in strategic planning, personnel policy, macroeconomic forecasting, and digitalization. The necessity of transitioning to an intelligent decision-making model, restoring analytical autonomy, scientific expertise, and personal responsibility within the governance system is substantiated.

The Era of “Manual Control”: Necessity or Inertia?

The first years of independence objectively required a mobilization model of governance. Under conditions of institutional immaturity, the “manual mode” became a forced instrument of stabilization. However, a mechanism justified in the 1990s gradually transformed into a stable managerial practice.

Today, the problem lies not so much in the presence of administrative control as in the substitution of strategic governance with operational reaction. Management by objectives has transformed into management by resources, while strategic documents have turned into formal reporting constructs.

In the context of increasing global economic complexity, such a model inevitably leads to declining effectiveness of public decisions.

The Breakdown of the Triad: Forecasting — Planning — Responsibility

Classical management theory presupposes coherence among three elements:

• scientifically grounded forecasting;
• strategic and operational planning;
• personal responsibility for results.

In practice, decision-making remains fragmented, agencies are disjointed, and there is a weak correlation between declared goals and achieved outcomes. This is particularly evident in the activities of key institutions within the economic bloc:

• Agency for Strategic Planning and Reforms of the Republic of Kazakhstan;
• Bureau of National Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan;
• Ministry of National Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan;
• Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Kazakhstan.

The observed discrepancies between forecasted and actual budget parameters, as well as inflation indicators, point not to technical calculation errors but to methodological and institutional failures in the forecasting system.

The problem is aggravated by the fact that research institutions, intended to ensure methodological autonomy and expert filtering of decisions, have effectively lost their independent role. As a result, the state possesses significant institutional resources but fails to generate a synergistic effect.

The Paradox of Governability without Governance

Formally, the system is saturated with programs, national projects, concepts, and strategies. However, their multiplicity does not translate into qualitative growth.

The project-based approach, borrowed from external experience, was introduced without considering national specifics and without a sustainable financial base. The subsequent return to a program-based format merely confirms the lack of institutional consistency.

As a result, a paradox emerges: high regulatory activity combined with low performance outcomes.

The Personnel Challenge: From Loyalty to Competence

A systemic problem of the public administration apparatus is the distortion of personnel policy. Professionalism often yields to formal loyalty, while the vertical school of managerial training has weakened.

Renewing staff exclusively through young specialists without practical managerial experience has not led to a qualitative institutional breakthrough. Governance requires not only energy but also professional discipline, analytical thinking, and responsibility for the consequences of decisions.

Techno-Optimism and Its Limits

The current stage of development is associated with active digitalization and the implementation of artificial intelligence technologies. However, there is a risk of technological fetishism — the belief that digital tools can replace managerial thinking.

Digitalization without intellectual substance produces a “digital façade”: platforms and databases exist but fail to ensure qualitative institutional transformation. Technology remains a tool; the subject of governance remains the human being.

The intellectualization of the state implies not merely process automation but the development of a culture of data analysis, strategic forecasting, and scientific expertise.

Contours of Managerial Renewal

The transition to an intelligent governance model requires consistent steps:

1.    Restoring strategic planning as the foundation of public policy;

2.    Establishing an independent scientific and analytical forecasting base;

3.    Reforming personnel policy toward competence and responsibility;

4.    Institutionally strengthening the role of academic science in decision preparation;

5.    Synchronizing development institutions, business, and the quasi-public sector.

For the university community, the fourth point is of particular importance. The country’s leading research centers, including 91��ý Kazakh National University, are capable of becoming the intellectual core of analytical support for public decision-making. The university environment possesses the potential for independent expertise, free from departmental constraints.

The Time for Intellectual Courage

Kazakhstan has entered a phase in which the inertial model of governance no longer ensures sustainable growth. In conditions of global turbulence, competitiveness is determined by the quality of institutions and the state’s capacity for strategic thinking.

True modernization begins not with new digital platforms but with restoring a culture of analysis, responsibility, and scientific substantiation of decisions. An intelligent state is not a metaphor — it is an institutional necessity.

Member of the Council of Senators under
the Senate of the Parliament of the Republic of Kazakhstan,
PhD in Physics and Mathematics,
Academician of the National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Kazakhstan
Edil Mamytbekov

General Director of
“RAM Engineering & Service,”
Master of Science (MSc) in Engineering
Myrza Anes Myrzauly